Monday, April 9, 2007

2007 British Open Odds - Bodog.com Sports Betting - Tiger Woods the Bodog Favorite for Carnoustie


The 2007 Masters golf tournament ended yesterday. Now it's time to look ahead to the rest of the 2007 PGA major events. With the Masters over, Bodog.com is offering bets on this year's British Open. Here's what they look like at the moment.

Tiger Woods - 5/2
Field (Any Other Golfer) - 5/1
Ernie Els - 9/1
Phil Mickelson - 16/1
Vijay Singh - 20/1
Retief Goosen - 20/1
Jim Furyk - 22/1
Sergio Garcia - 25/1
Padraig Harrington - 25/1
Luke Donald - 28/1
Trevor Immelman - 28/1
Henrik Stenson - 33/1
Adam Scott - 33/1
Geoff Ogilvy - 40/1
Paul Casey - 40/1
Tim Clark - 45/1
Darren Clarke - 50/1
Colin Montgomerie - 50/1
Stuart Appleby - 50/1
Chris DiMarco - 66/1
David Howell - 66/1
Lee Westwood - 66/1
Angel Cabrera - 66/1
David Toms - 66/1
Robert Allenby - 66/1
Jose Maria Olazabal - 66/1
Mike Weir - 66/1
Ian Poulter - 66/1
Thomas Bjorn - 80/1
Nick O'Hern - 80/1
Stewart Cink - 80/1
Kenny Perry - 80/1
Stephen Ames - 80/1
Davis Love III - 80/1
Michael Campbell - 80/1
Scott Verplank - 100/1
Chad Campbell - 100/1
Zach Johnson - 125/1
Carl Pettersson - 125/1

No surprise, but Tiger Woods is the favorite by a mile. He's won the last two British Opens, so the media buzz at the fabled Carnoustie, this year's course, will be palpable.

But, you've got to risk 5 to win 2 betting on Woods. That's always a doubtful prospect in golf.

Any other sport, if you're the best guy, you only have to beat one opponent on any given day. In a golf major, you have to beat somewhere around 125 players over a four day event. So you're betting on one guy against the field.

Roger Federer, Woods' closest counterpart (for dominance) currently in the world of sports, only has to beat 7 guys to win a major tournament. It's a big difference beat 7 and beating 125. So as dominant as Tiger Woods is, getting those odds on him beating the field isn't what I consider a great bet.

The thing is, golf is hard to figure anyway. All these guys are awesome golfers to be on the tour. Look at what happened to the Masters this weekend.

The Masters is the only major tournament played on the same course every year: Augusta National. This makes the event a little more predictable than other majors. Generally speaking, only the top players win the Masters. Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson had won 6 of the last 10 Masters coming into 2007.

So Augusta National decided to make their course harder this year. Tired of final scores in the double digit negatives, they decided to make the Masters a bit more like The U.S. Open. That is, they decided to make it a torture session for the world's greatest golfers.

The result was that not one golfer finished under par. No one could even post par. Little known Zach Johnson posted a +1 for the tourament, finishing two shots ahead of Tiger Woods, Retief Goosen and Rory Sabatini.

That's the kind of result you would expect from the U.S. Open. Though it's usually my favorite tournament of the year, the Open tends to equalize the game for all the players, often resulting in lesser known players winning the event.

The British Open is similar to its American counterpart.

While the Scottish courses have a look and feel all their own, the high winds and rougher roughs tend to challenge golfers in a way no American course does. Though Americans have a recent record of winning the British Open, the difficulty of the terrain makes the outcome somewhat more unpredictable than the Masters has been in the last ten years.

So betting the favorites is not necessarily the best strategy. Ernie Els has the second best odds. He tends to lurk around the top of the leader board at majors, though he hasn't posted a major win in several years now. Mickelson is more likely to win an American major.

You have perennial favorites like Colin Montegomery. But in my mind, Montie tends to choke at majors. The Brits would love to see one of their own win the British Open, but I think that tends to overinflate Montie's betting odds.

I never know why Sergio Garcia gets such high odds. Until he wins a major, I just don't see him as a viable contender. It seems like he only posts good rounds when the pressure is off of him. His putting, always a bit of a liability for Sergio, seems to desert him entirely when the pressure is at its greatest.

And then there's Zach Johnson. His Masters win got him a mention at 125-to-1 odds. I guess he'll get some new fans taking that bet. It's certainly impressive he was able to battle with several of the greats, keep his cool and win the most prestigious tournament of them all.

He's the first golfer to come from behind to beat Tiger on a Sunday at a major. So give him all the credit you wish.

But history shows that majors are few and far between for all but the greatest golfers. So while you might like the odds of a recent major winner getting 125 for betting 1, I imagine Zach will return to the pack of tour golfers after this weekend.

I hope Bodog posts U.S. Open numbers soon. Since it's the next major event, I would expect it to be getting some action now. Wait for it in the coming weeks.

2007 British Open Odds - Bodog.com Sports Betting - Tiger Woods the Bodog Favorite for Carnoustie