2007 NFL Draft Proposition Bets on Bodog.com - Picks 1 and 2

The 2007 NFL Draft is being held in New York City on the 28th and 29th of April. The Raiders and Lions, two of the most unpredictable franchises in recent years, sit at the top of the draft. So knowing what either will do in the early part of the draft is more difficult as usual.

If you think you know what's going to happen Saturday, Bodog.com has a whole slate of NFL Draft bets. Eight of the wagers feature who will be taken in the first eight spots of the draft. Below are the bets which concern the top four picks.

The maximum amount for each of these wagers is $100. Remember, if this pick is traded, the wager remains in place for whichever player is selected in this spot. Therefore, if the Raiders trade the first pick, the bet revolves around who is taken with the 1st pick, not who is taken by the Raiders in a lower spot.

The First Pick

The 1st pick in Saturday's NFL draft currently belongs to the Oakland Raiders. Which player will be the 1st pick in the 2007 NFL Draft?

JaMarcus Russell -245
Calvin Johnson +190
Any Other Player +700

The Raiders cut Aaron Brooks just after the season. Andrew Walter looked in over his head as a starting quarterback. Both Brooks and Walter were brought in to supplant Marques Tuiasosopo for the job. So the Oakland Raiders need a quarterback desperately.

So you would think the Raiders would draft a quarterback here. JaMarcus Russell has all of the physical tools you could ever need in a play caller. He seems to fit the Raiders classic offensive scheme, which is to throw the ball down the field. Everything seems to fit.

Which means the Raiders probably go in another direction.

There's no predicting what Al Davis will do. He might be in love with Calvin Johnson, the 6'5" receiver thought to be the best player in the draft. Johnson wowed scouts at the combine with a sub-4.4 40 time. He almost didn't run, and since he was 13 pounds over his playing weight at the time, there were rumblings that he was ducking the workout. Johnson changed his mind at the last minute, and now scouts are wondering what this kid can do when he's in game shape.

I would say that Calvin Johnson is the only bet worth taking here. The Russell wager doesn't pay off enough to chance an Al Davis selection, while no one think the Raiders will go in another direction from these two.

The Second Pick

The 2nd pick in Saturday's NFL draft currently belongs to the Detroit Lions. Which player will be the 2nd pick in the 2007 NFL Draft?

Calvin Johnson +140
Gaines Adams +150
Brady Quinn +325
Joe Thomas +425
Any Other Player +600
JaMarcus Russell +1000

Matt Millen has been predictable as the Lions GM: predictably bad. His first round selections have been huge disappointments, with the exception of Roy Williams (though last year's pick is too early to tell). Joey Harrington, Charles Rogers and Mike Williams were supposed to make the Lions offense one of the most talented and high-powered in the league. None of them started for the Lions last year. Two were already off the team.

The problem is, drafting receivers three years in a row means you aren't paying much attention to the defense. So after several years of middle-of-the-pack defensive numbers, that defense fell off a cliff last year. The conventional wisdom is the Lions draft Gaines Adams, the Florida Gators defensive end who wreaked such havoc in the BCS Title Game against Ohio State.

That wasn't the case as late as several weeks ago. A lot of mock drafts had the Lions taking Joe Thomas, a left tackle who could protect whichever quarterback the Lions field in the next ten years. Some experts have the Lions trading out of this pick, though, to pick Joe Thomas around the 4th or 5th pick.

That means someone is trading up to get either a quarterback or Calvin Johnson, so you have to keep that in mind when making this bet.

NFL trades are speculative, though, so you have to assume the Lions make this pick. If that is the case, then it probably comes down to Gaines Adams or Joe Thomas. Millen will be roasted if he drafts Johnson, the top player in the draft, and the Lions don't seem much interested in drafting a quarterback. Millen needs to save his job this year, so he's not looking for a project at quarterback. (That's a good argument for not having a lame duck GM, by the way. GMs need to look at the long term picture for the team.)

Take Adams if you want to play it safe. Take Johnson if you think the Lions trade this pick. Take Thomas if you want a long shot.

2007 NFL Mock Draft #1
2007 NFL Mock Draft #2

2007 NFL Draft Proposition Bets on Bodog.com - Picks 1 and 2