Monday, April 30, 2007

2007 NFL Draft Recap - Grading the NFC North


Welcome to the Daretogamble.com NFL Draft analysis. Here's where we weigh in with our grades on this last weekend's NFL draft extravaganza. Time to pull out the crystal ball and predict the Houston Texans will win the 2010 Superbowl, or something equally wacky.

Here are some ground rules for the proceedings, by the way.

One, I don't grade every round the same. It seems like I see draft gurus grade the "whole" draft as if the 7th is as important as the 2nd round. There might be some badass get selected, but if anyone knew who those people were going to be, they would have been drafted rounds higher. To pretend otherwise is just nonsense.

I think the studs are just a little more important (or at least more predictable) than arguing about who the best 7th round gunner on special teams is.

Two, I do take into account all the personnel moves over the weekend. I'm not going to get tunnel vision and grade a team only on the selections it made. If a team made a trade or acquisition associated with this draft, I want to factor it in.

Basically, who helped themselves the most over the weekend of the NFL draft? That's the question we are answering here.

BODOG SUPERBOWL ODDS


Chicago Bears - 10 to 1
Green Bay Packers - 50 to 1
Minnesota Vikings - 70 to 1
Detroit Lions - 100 to 1

CHICAGO BEARS

1st - Greg Olsen - TE - Miami (Fl.)
2nd - Dan Bazuin - DE - Central Michigan
3rd - Garrett Wolfe - RB - Northern Illinois
3rd - Michael Okwo - LB - Stanford
4th - Josh Beekman - G - Boston College
5th - Kevin Payne - DB - Louisiana Monroe
5th - Corey Graham - DB - New Hampshire
7th - Trumain McBride - DB - Mississippi
7th - Aaron Brant - OT - Iowa State

Grade: C

Greg Olsen gives Rex Grossman a big target in the middle of the field, and Grossman has shown a propensity for throwing to his tight ends. Olsen is more of a threat than Desmond Clark was last year. Beekman is a great value in the 4th round, but Okwo and Wolfe are considered 2nd round reaches. With Thomas Jones gone, the Bears are hoping Cedric Benson stays healthy, or else Wolfe gets significant playing time. The Bears went with quantity over quality in the defensive backfield.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

1st - Justin Harrell - DT - Tennessee
2nd - Brandon Jackson - RB - Nebraska
3rd - James Jones - WR - San Jose St.
3rd - Aaron Rouse - DB - Virginia Tech
4th - Allen Barbre - OT - Missouri Southern
5th - David Clowney - WR - Virginia Tech
6th - Korey Hall - LB - Boise St.
6th - Desmond Bishop - LB - California
6th - Mason Crosby - K - Colorado
7th - Deshawn Wynn - RB - Florida
7th - Clark Harris - TE - Rutgers

Grade: C-

The Packers could use help in the defensive front, but Justin Harrell was a bit of a reach at this point. Bowe and Meacham were on the board as receiving options for Favre, while higher rated defenders were also there. Brandon Jackson is a name for you fantasy football players to keep in mind. The 2nd rounder is already pencilled in as the Packers starter, though there were bigger names still left on the board in the second. Heck, the way the NFL goes, Florida runner Deshawn Wynn could win the starting job. Rouse and James Jones are reaches. It seems like the Packers always get plenty of bodies at receiver, but a high draft pick or a trade for Randy Moss would have been nice. Barbre and Clowney were value picks were they were taken.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

1st - Adrian Peterson - RB - Oklahoma
2nd - Sidney Rice - WR - South Carolina
3rd - Marcus McCauley - DB - Fresno St.
4th - Brian Robison - DE - Texas
5th - Aundrea Allison - WR - East Carolina
6th - Rufus Alexander - LB - Oklahoma
7th - Tyler Thigpen - QB - Coastal Carolina
7th - Chandler Williams - WR - Florida International

Grade: A

The Vikings got the best value in the 1st round drafting Adrian Peterson. With his upright running style, Peterson might be an injury risk. But he has frequently been compared to Eric Dickerson, which isn't such a bad thing. On the turf, he should be deadly. It's become standard for NFL teams to have two runners, so I'm not too worried about ball distribution between Peterson and last year's high-priced free agent, Chester Taylor. Peterson becomes the home run hitter. I would have figured Minnesota would have coveted Dwayne Jarrett for their West Coast offense, since big (and relatively slow) receivers have flourished in it in the past. Instead, the Vikes took Sidney Rice, whom many tout as a future star. But didn't the Vikings already draft a speedy wideout from South Carolina? This pick is to cover up for the failed Troy Williamson pick two years ago.

DETROIT LIONS

1st - Calvin Johnson - WR - Georgia
2nd - Drew Stanton - QB - Michigan St.
2nd - Ikaika Alama-Francis - DE - Hawaii
2nd - Gerard Alexander - DB - Boise State
4th - A.J. Davis - DB - North Carolina State
4th - Manuel Ramirez - G - Texas Tech
5th - Johnny Baldwin - LB - Alabama A&M
7th - Ramzee Robinson - DB - Alabama

GRADE: B

After years of ripping Matt Millen, it's reflex to criticise his drafts. But it really is hard to complain about Calvin Johnson, even if this is the 4th first round receiver in 5 years. All the world assumes Calvin Johnson is the best player in this draft. He has every measurable you can imagine: size, speed, body control, great hands. Put Johnson and Roy Williams together and the Lions are going to give lots of defenses match up problems. The problem is, wasn't Charles Rogers a can't miss prospect, too?

I guess it's not the same, but no pick is certain, if for no other reason than injuries. Meanwhile, the Lions secured their quarterback of the future in the early second round. We can argue all day which of the 2nd round passers are best. I'm not sure if Stanton is "the Guy", but I guess he is for now. The problem is, they could have draft Paul Posluszny in the early second and chose not to. If Stanton busts and Posluszny turns into a perennial Pro Bowler, then watch out, Matt Millen.

At least the Lions had a philosophy throughout the rest of the draft. Detroit added speed, speed, speed throughout the draft, so they should flourish on the home turf in years to come.

2007 NFL Draft Recap - Grading the NFC North