Wednesday, April 11, 2007

2007 NFL Mock Draft - Second Half of the 1st Round - NFL Draft First Round Selections


Now we come to the second half of the first round of the NFL Draft 2007. This is where the picks start to get extremely speculative. Teams start to trade up and down in these picks, when a player starts to slide down the draft board.

Other teams find the player they hoped would fall get snatched up, or see a handful of players that all rate about the same. In either case, a trade down makes sense.

That being said, if everyone stays put, here is final half of my mock draft, which will air on April 28 and 29 on ESPN.

If you want to see what the odds of each NFL winning the Superbowl next year, you should take a look at the futures bets on Bodog. I'm sure some of these might change in a couple of weeks, when one or two of the high profile players get selected by the "right" team.

For now, it's fun trying to guess where everyone's going to go. Have fun disagreeing with my picks.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Reggie Nelson - S, Florida - Nelson is a solid coverage safety who could replace Deon Grant, if needed. Reggie needs to bulk up a little bit for the NFL, but the Jags are always looking to boost their pass defense to deal with Peyton Manning. A pass-rusher like Charles Johnson out of Georgia might also be a possibility.

18. Cincinnati Bengals - Darelle Revis - CB, Pittsburgh - The Bengals need a cornerback in a bad way. Their defense once again took a step backwards last year. Darrelle Revis runs a 4.39 and is generally considered the best cornerback remaining on the board.

19. Tennessee Titans - Dwayne Jarrett - WR, USC - The Titans could go several different directions. They need help on the outside on offense and defense. The Pac-Man Jones suspension could force their hand at corner, though the Titans need a wide receiver to pair with Vince Young. Enter Dwayne Jarrett, the big receiver out of Southern Cal. This is probably the last player that Norm Chow gets out of the SC connection.

20. New York Giants - Lawrence Timmons - OLB, Florida State - For a team that's made the playoffs two years running, the Giants have a surprising number of holes on their team. Pettigout's departure leaves a hole on the offensive line. With Toomer's season-ending injury and Plaxico a bit of a basket case, the Giants could use a receiver. But wide receiver is a position of depth in this draft, so I bet they gamble somebody they like falls to them in the second. Defense was a huge problem last year, mainly due to injuries everywhere. They need healthy bodies on the defense, and Timmons is one of the most talented defensive players left on the board. Cornerback is also an area of need.

21. Denver Broncos - Charles Johnson - DE, Georgia - The Broncos need a defensive lineman who hasn't played for the Cleveland Browns. They could use help at tackle, but there isn't a player of value at this point. Somehow, I have a feeling the Broncos will either trade up or trade down on draft day. In recent years, they have become one of the major movers at the draft. Their extra picks make that just as likely this year. If Denver stays put, Charles Johnson is a value pick at a position where they need a talent upgrade. Johnson is probably the best pass rusher at this point of the draft.

22. Dallas Cowboys - Jarvis Moss - DE/OLB, Florida - With the addition of Ken Hamelin and Leonard Davis, the Cowboys are less likely to draft for need here. Like in most of the recent seasons, I see them going defense again. Cornerback is getting a lot of talk, while safety was a must before the Hamelin signing. But both positions have starters and backups, so I'm not so sure that's what Jerry is thinking here. I think Wade Phillips would like a stout nose tackle to spell the aging Jason Ferguson, too. A value defensive tackle doesn't seem to be here at this selection, though, so I'm betting the Cowboys throw a real curveball with this pick. Enter Jarvis Moss, a 255-lb. tweener who is thought to have the versatility to play defensive end in the 4-3 or outside linebacker in the 3-4. Moss looks like a classic 3-4 linebacker, who could add another potential pass rusher opposite Demarcus Ware. He isn't considered great at the point of attack, but that is when he's crowding the line as a defensive end. You must remember that Greg Ellis is returning from an achilles injury, while Bobby Carpenter spent most of last year on the inside. Cowboys fans will howl that the Cowboys spent two straight #1's on the same position (Carpenter), but a weak pass rush left their safeties exposed last year. I'm saying Wade Phillips wants to address that need first and foremost.

23. Kansas City Chiefs - Robert Meachem - WR, Tennessee - Every year, the experts count on the Chiefs investing in wide receivers. Every year, the Chiefs neglect the position to improve their defense. It never seems to work, but they keep trying. I'm saying this is the year they address the situation. Damon Huard is going to need some targets, while Gonzales and Kennison are only getting older. Sammie Parker is a joke opposite Kennison, mainly because Parker can't catch. Robert Meachem is the most complete receiver on the board, combining 4.4 speed with good size and solid college production.

24. New England Patriots - Aaron Ross - CB, Texas - This is the first of two Patriots picks in the late first round. The Patriots Defense gave up the fewest points a Patriots defense has ever yielded, but they are getting old throughout the team. If Jarvis Moss falls to them, they may well snatch him up here. If not, the Pats will look to add a cornerback. Aaron Ross is the best corner still on the board.

25. New York Jets - Greg Olsen - TE, Miami of Florida - Like a lot of the teams at this stage of the draft, the Jets could use help on defense. Their #1 glaring need is cornerback, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they drafted corner here. BUt I also think the drafting of Leon Hall, Darelle Revis and Aaron Ross leaves the position somewhat depleted. Part of my choice for Aaron Ross to the Patriots is the fact these two coaching staffs seemed to have tensions last year, and the Patriots will want to secure a cornerback before the Jets can draft one. So I'm assuming the Jets go another direction here. I have seen Olsen go as high as #14 on some mock drafts, so someone is going to stop his slide down the draft board. I see the Jets as a potential fit for Olsen. Mangini comes out of the Belichick system, where they love to stock up on tight ends. Olsen is the most talented tight end in the draft, and his drafting should help continue the Chad Pennington renaissance. Just one question, though. Is New York City big enough for two standout tight ends from the University of Miami?

26. Philadelphia Eagles - Marcus McCauley - CB, Fresno State - Some might view this as a bit of a reach. Several other corners might be at the top of Phillie's board. But the Eagles corners have to match up with the likes of NFC East receivers like Terrell Owens and Plaxico Burress. So drafting the biggest remaining cornerback makes a certain amount of sense here. Teams tend to reach on corners these days, and the picture will only look worse a round later. The Eagles could look receiver here after the loss of Donte Stallworth, but they added Kevin Curtis in the offseason and I bet they simply plug him into the offense as their big play guy.

27. New Orleans Saints - Paul Pozluszny - LB, Penn State - The Saints have holes on the defense that need to be addressed. The plight of cornerback Fred Thomas became a major subplot in the playoff drive last year, so the Saints will be looking for help at cornerback. Their defense was 23rd against the run in 2007, so I imagine an upgrade of their linebacking corps is in order. Look for them to draft a player at either of these positions. Most of the cornerbacks at this point have major question marks, though Chris Washington shut down several big name receivers last year in college. I'm betting Sean Peyton can find a place for a college standout that had a sub-par senior season. "Poz" should help the run defense and add character to the defensive side of the ball. Pozluszny was the linebacker of the year in 2005, but his numbers slipped when he was forced to play out of position last year. This guy is a player. I imagine the Patriots will be hoping he falls to them at #28. The Saints might make a trade up to grab a cornerback, with Peyton's old employer, Jerry Jones, as the best option for that move.

28. New England Patriots - Ryan Kalil - C, USC - The free agent addition of Adalius Thomas has already addressed major needs in their linebacking corps. It's time to look at their offense, which struggled more than anything last year. They could use an infusion of youth along their offensive line. Ryan Kalil is the best center in the draft. Have the Patriots split their two first rounders among offense and defense.

29. Baltimore Ravens - Anthony Spencer - OLB/DE, Purdue - Adalius Thompson is gone, so the Ravens will make up the loss by drafting a pass rusher on the corner in Anthony Spencer. The Ravens could use some help up front on offense, but I imagine they look at the addition of Willis McGahee as a way to cover up deficiencies in the line. We'll see if that works. Spencer allows the Ravens to add one more top performer to surround Ray Lewis, in the hopes defense, a star runner and a veteran quarterback are enough to make one more run at the Superbowl.

30. San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Bowe - WR, LSU - The Chargers could use depth along the offensive line. Middle linebacker or deep safety help might make sense here. But it's about time a few receivers started falling off the board, and Norv Turner might well want another target for Philip Rivers. Bowe is big receiver without blazing speed. A lot of Chargers fans think Vincent Jackson is ready for a breakout year, so Bowe might be a solid possession receiver for the future. There's a chance aging possession reciever Keenan McCardell won't be back with the team next year.

31. Chicago Bears - Joe Staley - OT, Central Michigan - Staley has been moving up the draft board of late. He is a versatile player who can play either guard or tackle. That appeals to the Bears, who have depth concerns at both positions. The Bears could go receiver here, or they could look at a defender to replace a (possibly) departing Lance Briggs. But I don't think Chicago wants to invest first round money in a receiver, and I think they look at offense as their unit of need. Staley covers a couple of positions of concern, and is moreover cheaper than a receiver at this position.

32. Indianapolis Colts - Jon Beason - OLB, Miami of Florida - The Colts are starting to lose players to free agency at an alarming rate. Welcome to the life of a Superbowl champion. The departure of Cato June is just another in a yearly exodus of Colts linebacking talent. Jon Beason is undersized but quick. That sounds like a classic Colts defender. He is known as a "motor" player. Beason never stops, though he can get eaten up by blocks. Players taken with the last pick in the first round tend to have flaws. Beason has enough upside for the Colts to overlook the warts.

2007 NFL Mock Draft - Second Half of the 1st Round - NFL Draft First Round Selections