Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Bodog Bets on Dallas Cowboys 2007 1st Round Draft Pick - Jerry Jones Making the Moves


Here's an interesting bet on Bodog.com.

What will the Dallas Cowboys first round pick be?

Cornerback -105

Wide Receiver -110

Any Other Position +180

Cowboys fans should be terrified. Jerry Jones held his most disturbing press conference in years on Monday afternoon. With Parcells out of the way, Jerry decided to let the local media know about the upcoming NFL Draft.

At least, that was the excuse. Jerry actually was letting everyone know (in no uncertain terms) that he was back in charge at Valley Ranch. Coach Jones even used the occasion to take a few subtle shots at his former coach.

SHOTS AT PARCELLS

When comparing Bill Parcells to Wade Phillips, Jerry hinted that Parcells was too unflexible. He said that Coach Parcells wanted players who fit a rigid concept of what a player should look like. In comparison, Wade Phillips is more likely to take a player who is a little smaller or a little larger than the prototype.

The implication was that Parcells wasn't adaptive enough, and that Wade Phillips drafted players instead of statistics.

Jerry went on to mention that Bill Parcells was "the football coach, not a personnel man". That is a shot across the bow if I've ever heard one.

JERRY GENIUS

So Jerry was showing he's the sheriff in town. He will be making the draft decisions for the foreseeable future. Since Jerry ran the team into the ground with awful draft choices from 1995 to 2002, that is a bad sign for all Dallas Cowboys fans.

Perhaps Jerry is about to enter his Al Davis Phase.

You may say I'm being alarmist, but Cowboys faithful should brace themselves for the following information.

LACEWELL AND SWITZER?

When asked who he would listen to when drafting this year, Jerry mentioned that he was giving tape to consultants Barry Switzer and Larry Lacewell, the two men most blamed in Dallas (after Jerry) for the Cowboys' late nineties decline. That is bad, bad news.

Jerry specifically mentioned that he was conferring with Switzer about the running back situation, while mentioning that Wade Phillips like a runner with "a little wiggle". It sounds like Marion Barber III, the Cowboys most productive runner last year, might not be leading the NFC in touchdowns this year.

Don't get me wrong. A runner with a little wiggle is fine, when that player is Ladanian Tomlinson. But Wade Phillips won't have LT this year, so he might need to practice that adaptability of his that Jerry was lauding earlier in the press conference.

But on to the business of the draft choice.

AND THE COWBOYS 1ST ROUND SELECTION IS...

I wouldn't be surprised to see Dallas trade out of this spot. It's a favorite tactic of Jerry's, because he likes the idea of "getting value". Jimmy Johnson did the same thing back in the old days, and it worked out very well for him. It's one of the parts of Jimmy's legacy that Jerry still embraces.

The problem is, Jerry's trade-downs never seem to work. He ends up passing on a solid big college performer and drafts a small college athlete he thinks has more upside.

Of course, maybe Jerry doesn't make the pick. He hinted that he might trade this year's first for a first rounder next year, when he might be over his need to be a "football guy" again. Probably not, though.

CORNERBACK, RECEIVER OR OTHER?

Specifically, I would suggest taking the "Other" bet here. It's almost a 1-to-1 bet, and you get all positions but two.

At receiver, the Cowboys still have Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn and Patrick Crayton. A receiver will probably be the #4 next year.

At cornerback, the Cowboys have Terrence Newman, Anthony Henry and Aaron Glenn, three veterans. If the Cowboys are going to be thinking playoff run, I have a hard time seeing a cornerback supplanting any of those guys. With the signing of Ken Hamelin, the Anthony Henry to free safety talk has died down.

That's probably why Jerry is thinking about trading down. He thinks the Cowboys roster is so talent rich that drafting a corner or receiver (the two positions with most value in the 22 spot) is liking waiting a year to draft. So why not trade with a team that will have a higher pick next year?

If Jerry drafts a 1st rounder, I'm betting he grabs someone who can contribute right away, like an extra pass rusher or a nose tackle to split time with Jason Ferguson.

The Cowboys could use a nose tackle, pass rusher, o-line depth, running back or even full back, which was addressed on Monday. So there's no telling what Jerry will do.

My best advice is not to bet on Jerry Jones. He's a losing proposition.

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Bodog Bets on Dallas Cowboys 2007 1st Round Draft Pick - Jerry Jones Making the Moves