Bodog Proposition Betting on NFL Draft 2007 - Green Bay Packers Bet

Which skill position will the Green Bay Packers draft first?

RB -240
WR +190
TE +350
QB +850
No Skill position drafted +800

Marshawn Lynch is the only viable running back at the #16 spot, but I'm starting to hear that Lynch may slide down the draft board. In fact, if he makes it past the Packers, it's possible that Lynch slides to the bottom of the first, or even out of it altogether.

This is just another example of recent trends. Running backs fall in the NFL Draft these days. Here is a list of reasons why running backs fall in the NFL Draft.

THREE REASONS RUNNERS FALL IN THE DRAFT

1. Most teams have someone they think can carry them. Look across the league, and a large number of teams have a guy they at least think is a stud. With so many other holes to fill on a team, drafting a runner at #1 doesn't seem that wise.

2. Connected to this, star runners have been drafted outside of the first round in recent years. Clinton Portis was a 2nd rounder. Frank Gore was a 3rd rounder. Maurice Jones-Drew was the same.

Meanwhile, running backs drafted exceptionally high are known to bust. Cadillac Williams has not been worth the #5 overall pick. Cedric Benson, the fourth pick in the same draft, has consistently been outperformed by Thomas Jones. Looking back, no one seriously thinks that Williams or Benson are more talented players than Portis or Gore.

3. Runners wear out quickly. If you draft a left tackle, you can plug him in for the next 10 to 12 years. If you draft a quarterback, you can hope for the same. But runners get old quicker than any other position in football, because of the wear and tear of the position. You get hit 25 times a game. Emmitt Smith said it was like being in 20 car crashes every week. So why draft a guy high that will be considered on the decline in five years?

THE OTHER OPTIONS

The Packers have other options. The likeliest option is a receiver. The Packers have drafted receiver after receiver in recent years, from Robert Ferguson and Javon Walker in the 1st round to last year's second rounder, Greg Jennings. The strategy is simple; they want targets for Brett Favre.

But I wonder if they will go this direction this time around. Receivers usually take a year or two to learn the system. Favre doesn't have a year or two to wait. So I wonder if the Packers won't roll out Driver and Jennings next year, since they had decent numbers a year ago (when healthy). They can fill out the position with a free agent veteran. Heck, if they want a splash, they can pursue veteran receivers like Randy Moss or Darrell Jackson, who both seem to have worn out their welcome with their own teams.

GREG OLSEN

It used to be that the Green Bay Packers drafted tight ends high. They wanted to replace Mark Chmura, and never adequately did so. Bubba Franks has turned into a good blocker, but never became the pass catching threat that his 1st round selection would have warranted. The tight end position is fairly weak this year, though there is one option possible.

Greg Olsen has been moving up the draft board this spring. Before the combine, Olsen was most often listed as going somewhere in the 20's. Since that time, I've seen him going to the Carolina Panthers with the 14th overall pick.

If Olsen slips past the Panthers, the Packers might decide to give Favre a big target in the middle of the field. With the emergence of Greg Jennings last year as a #2 guy, having a big tight end to throw to might make more sense than adding a third receiver.
THE FIRST SKILL POSITION PLAYER

Of course, this wager involves the Packers' first skill position player, not its first round pick. With their trouble on the defensive side of the ball, it's very possible that Green Bay takes a defensive player at the 16th pick. They could always use a cornerback, while I've seen them drafting a pass rusher to replace Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila.

If there is no skill position player in the 1st, then the odds change. The Packers desperately need a running back, so they might gamble on a player in the second. Or, with the depth at the flanker position in this year's draft, the Pack could try to draft for value with a middle second round pick at receiver. It worked last year with Jennings.

Other NFL Draft Bets on Bodog:

2007 NFL Draft 1st Rounders
2007 Dallas Cowboys 1st Rounder

Bodog Proposition Betting on NFL Draft 2007 - Green Bay Packers Bet