NFL Rookie Receiver Bet - Bodog Proposition Bets

Here's another wacky NFL Draft bet on Bodog.

Which college receiving du0 will produce the most receiving yards in the NFL in 2007?

USC - Smith / Jarrett -110
LSU - Bowe / Davis +250
OSU - Ginn Jr. / Gonzalez -110

Boy, what an intriguing proposition. What a nightmare to figure out, too.

LEARNING THE SYSTEM

Rookie receivers are about as tricky as any other position in football, perhaps as tricky as rookie quarterbacks. These are the two position players who have to make the biggest adjustment to the pro game. You have to learn how to read defenses, which are set up specifically to confuse the key players in the passing game.

Most receivers take a year or two to figure it out. The conventional wisdom is that third year receivers are ready to break out. So figuring out what a rookie will do is big mess.

DOUBLE TEAMS

Doubling the randomness of this bet is the fact it includes two rookies. Each will be in entirely different situations. All six of the players mentioned will be drafted high and expected to produce at some point. If only one of them breaks out early, they probably win the bet for those who showed confidence.

This is especially difficult figuring out before the NFL draft. Where these guys go will be a huge factor in how they perform. If one goes to where he will start in Game 1, that means a big advantage for that tandem. If one is a third receiver on a team which lines up in 3-wide and throws it a lot, that's a big advantage.

At the same time, if a player lands on a team which runs it a disproportionate amount of the time, or has a couple of veteran receivers, that player may be more or less red-shirted their rookie season.

LOCATION IS EVERYTHING

Keep in mind that many of these player wills be drafted in the mid-to-late first round. That means those players are probably going to playoff teams. That could cut both ways.

One, the player will be going to better offenses, which is a good thing.

Two, the player will be going to a team with established stars. That receiver might not be the go-to guy this year. The team might be stockpiling talent for the future.

THE PLAYOFF TEAM

Playoff teams are not as likely to put the rookie into the fire early on. Those teams might ease the transition to the pro game by waiting until midseason to expose them to full time duty.

One or two of these players might slide into the early second round, where they get drafted by teams who will have nothing to lose, and no talented producers ahead of the rookie. These teams likely will be behind most games, which could lead to inflated passing numbers.

For my money I would probably go with the Ohio State rookies. But this is one of the toughest bets of this entire batch.

OTHER NFL BODOG BETS

Bobby Petrino Bet
2007 NFL Draft Betting

NFL Rookie Receiver Bet - Bodog Proposition Bets