NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year on Bodog

Bodog.com has set a new series of NFL proposition bets.

Who will be the 2007-08 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?

Calvin Johnson - 9/2
Marshawn Lynch - 5/1
Adrian Peterson - 13/2
JaMarcus Russell - 7/1
Brady Quinn - 9/1
Brandon Jackson - 10/1
Ted Ginn Jr. - 14/1
Dwayne Jarett - 15/1
Anthony Gonzalez - 18/1
Robert Meachem - 18/1
Sidney Rice - 20/1
Dwayne Bowe - 20/1
Chris Henry - 24/1
Craig Davis - 25/1
Kenny Irons - 25/1
Michael Bush - 25/1
Steve Smith - 30/1
Greg Olsen - 30/1
Brian Leonard - 40/1
Zach Miller - 40/1
Field (Any Other Player) - 6/1

QUARTERBACK

Two of the last three winners of this award were quarterbacks. Before that, you have to go back to 1970 and Dennis Shaw to find a quarterback winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Rookie quarterbacks struggle. I mean, 1970 is going back a long way. Joe Montana, John Elway, Dan Marino, Brett Favre...you name them, and they didn't get rookie of the year. Peyton Manning struggled as a rookie. He threw something like 29 interceptions that year. So take this bet at your own risk.

If you choose a quarterback to become Rookie of the Year, Jamarcus Russell has the most skills to impress. He's got the arm that can throw it 80 yards and could well be starting from the start of the season.

BRADY QUINN

If Brady Quinn gets on the field in the first month of the season, he has weapons around him like Kellen Winslow Jr., Braylon Edwards and Jamal Lewis. The Browns offensive line should be the best it has been in years, with the additions of Eric Steinbach, LeCharles Bentley (back from injury) and Joe Thomas as the 3rd pick of the draft.

But I wouldn't go this direction. You can't count on something as rare as the next Roethlisberger, and the comebacks Vince Young led last year were almost as freaky. Bet on a running back.

RUNNING BACK

Runners make contributions quick, because toting the ball is a purely athletic skill in football. Sure, running backs need to learn the blocking schemes so the quarterback doesn't get his head caved in. But runners don't have to get intricate timing down the way quarterbacks and receivers do. They don't have to worry about coverages. Runners get the ball and run with it, so they can make instant contributions to teams.

Sixteen of the last twenty one NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year awards have gone to running back. I'll repeat that. 16 of the last 21 NFL Offensive RoY have gone to runners. If you want the best bet on the board, bet on one of the running backs.

FORMER ROOKIES OF THE YEAR

The problem is, these guys sometimes come out of nowhere. When Anthony Thomas won Rookie of the Year in 2001, he wasn't the highest drafted runner by any means. Clinton Portis was a 2nd rounder in 2002, while 2000 award winner, Mike Anderson, was a 6th rounder.

That being said, there are good bets on those guys who will have a chance to carry the ball right away. Marshawn Lynch, who should be the #1 instantly, is a good candidate. Adrian Peterson will (presumably) be sharing time with Chester Taylor. Though Peterson is the most talented runner in the draft, he will have less chances to make a mark than Lynch.

Brandon Jackson was drafted in the 2nd round by the Green Bay Packers. Because the Packers lost less in the offseason, Jackson might have a better team around him than Marshawn Lynch. Though a player doesn't have to be on a winning team to win RooY, it helps.

WIDE RECEIVER

Among wide receivers in the last twenty years, only Carl Pickens, Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin have been NFL Rookie of the Year. Receivers tend to have a harder transition to the NFL than running backs. There's just more to learn to master the position.

I'm tempted to say that those who make an instant impact are the speedy guys who make big plays down the field, like Randy Moss in 1998. But Boldin isn't a speed burner. He's dropped into the 2nd round due to a lack of speed, then caught a hundred balls his rookie year. Boldin is a talented possession receiver, so there's really no pigeon-holing these guys.

DON'T DO IT

I would stay away from betting a receiver. While one of these pass catchers might come out like Marques Colston last year, it's almost impossible to say which one will. You can lay odds on Calvin Johnson being just that special, but unless the Lions come out like the 1998 Vikings, he's still going to be sharing the limitations of the Lions offensive production with Roy Williams.

Check out the odds on the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award.

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year on Bodog